Brian Burke Probabilities vs Happy's Non-Line
2009 NFL Outcome Prediction Accuracy Comparison
|
BOBB
|
Happy
|
Vegas
|
|
NE -13.1
|
NE -9.8
|
NE -13.5
|
|
JAC -7.1
|
JAC +0.5
|
JAC -3
|
|
KC +3.7
|
KC +2.2
|
KC -1
|
|
BAL -14.8
|
BAL -16.1
|
BAL -13
|
|
MIN -5
|
MIN -9
|
MIN -6.5
|
|
DAL +0.6
|
DAL -1.1
|
DAL -3
|
|
CHI +5.7
|
CHI +4.7
|
CHI +3
|
|
IND -6
|
IND -8.7
|
IND -7
|
|
HOU -8.5
|
NA
|
HOU -6
|
|
SF +0
|
NA
|
SF +3
|
|
ATL +12.5
|
NA
|
ATL +9.5
|
|
TEN -11.5
|
NA
|
TEN -13
|
|
CLE +16.2
|
NA
|
CLE +10
|
|
OAK +8.2
|
NA
|
OAK +1
|
|
NYG -1.5
|
NA
|
NYG -1
|
|
TB +7.1
|
NA
|
TB +4
|
|
BOBB
|
Happy
|
Vegas
|
|
DEN -18.8
|
DEN -10.9
|
DEN -14
|
|
NYJ -8.9
|
NYJ -3.2
|
NYJ -6
|
|
WAS +2.4
|
WAS +0.2
|
WAS +3
|
|
DET +11.5
|
DET +14.1
|
DET +11.5
|
|
SD -11.5
|
SD -9
|
SD -6.5
|
|
PHI -12.5
|
PHI -7.2
|
PHI -9.5
|
|
PIT -2.4
|
PIT -2.6
|
PIT -1
|
|
TEN -8.5
|
TEN -1.5
|
TEN -3
|
|
BAL -10.6
|
NA
|
BAL -10.5
|
|
JAC +7.1
|
NA
|
JAC +3
|
|
CAR +3.1
|
NA
|
CAR +7.5
|
|
SEA -4.7
|
NA
|
SEA -7
|
|
KC -6
|
NA
|
KC -1
|
|
BUF +6.7
|
NA
|
BUF +7
|
|
NO -6.7
|
NA
|
NO -7
|
|
STL +11.1
|
NA
|
STL +10
|
Week Fourteen
Brian Burke is at 72.5% and I am at 67.4% YTD. Brian has the two best weeks of the season (4, 12) at 90%+
To better understand how BOBB lines are generated, be sure to read our article on converting probabilities to pointspreads. Looking for past BOBB lines? Either read the comments in Brian's Fifthdown posts or check out our naming convention (.../bobb_8.html)
Week Fifteen
Happy's Lines, BOBB Lines, Vegas Lines
(BOBB Lines are Based on Brian Burke's NFL Probabilities)
